Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) investors eye Japanese manufacturing, retail sales

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) investors eye Japanese manufacturing, retail sales

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) investors eye Japanese manufacturing, retail sales

USD/JPY has recorded slight gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.85, up 0.25% on the day. On the release front, U.S. data was mixed. Factory orders were up 0.1%, well off the forecast of 1.5%. Pending Home Sales sparkled with a gain of 4.6%, its highest gain in two years. In Japan, Preliminary Industrial Production has posted four straight declines and the markets expect a sharp drop of 2.5%. Retail sales are projected to edge higher to 1.4%. On Thursday, the U.S. will post Advance GDP and unemployment claims.

There were no surprises from Powell’s testimony before a senate committee on Tuesday, as Powell preached patience with regard to changes in interest rates. Powell stated that the Fed was in “no rush to make a judgment” and made reference to “conflicting signals in the economy”. The labor picture remains bright, with strong hiring and low unemployment. At the same time, consumer spending and housing data have been soft. The markets are expecting the Fed to remain on the sidelines in May and June, meaning that the first hike of 2019 will not come before the second half of the year.

Inflation remains stubbornly low in Japan. Annual core consumer inflation was just 0.8% in January, as the BoJ has been unable to boost inflation to its target of around 2%. The BoJ has long stuck to its current monetary policy, but there are dissenting voices calling for change. On Wednesday, BoJ member Goushi Kataoka called on the bank to increase stimulus in order to achieve its inflation target. However, unless BoJ Governor Kuroda decides to take stronger easing steps, current monetary policy will remain in place.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 112.40.

The projected lower bound is: 109.56.

The projected closing price is: 110.98.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.9997. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 38 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 31 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.440 at 111.010. Volume was 24% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 22% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.570 111.030 110.340 111.010 80,619

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.70 109.79 111.30
Volatility: 5 8 7
Volume: 93,528 95,962 105,597

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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