Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Investors eye central banks

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Investors eye central banks

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Investors eye central banks

The Japanese Tankan indices were mixed. The manufacturing indicator slipped to 7, missing the estimate of 9 points. The services sector has been much stronger, and the index climbed to 23, beating the forecast of 21 points. Housing spending sparkled, with a gain of 4.0%. This was its sharpest gain since April 2015.

In the U.S., the services sector PMI continues to indicate expansion, but slowed in May. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed, slowing to 55.1, down from 56.9 a month earlier. This missed the estimate of 56.1. Key employment numbers were a mix in June.

Wage growth remained stuck at 0.2% for a third successive month. Nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a strong gain of 224 thousand, crushing the estimate of 224 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7%, above the estimate of 3.6%.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.46.

The projected lower bound is: 107.30.

The projected closing price is: 108.38.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.6349. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 128.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.010 at 108.440. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 19% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
108.430 108.540 108.340 108.440 1,212

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 107.94 109.01 110.87
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 81,621 88,315 98,938

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 45 periods.

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