Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) inflation remains well below the BoJ target of 2.0 percent
Dollar/yen posted slight losses last week.Japanese events tend not to have a significant effect on the pair, but investors will be keeping a close eye on the FOMC rate statement and nonfarm payrolls.
Japanese inflation remains well below the BoJ target of 2.0 percent. The bank’s preferred inflation indicator, BoJ Core CPI, remained unchanged at 0.5%. The bank maintained rates at 0.00%, adding that it had no plans to raise rates before the spring of 2020. Retail sales improved to 1.0% in March, up sharply from 0.8% a month earlier.
In the U.S, last week’s numbers were positive. Durable goods orders climbed 2.7%, crushing the estimate of 0.7%. Core durable goods orders gained 0.4%, marking a 9-month high. This was followed by a strong initial GDP release of 3.2% in Q1, well above expectations. This was much stronger than Final GDP for Q4, which came in at 2.2%.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 112.55.
The projected lower bound is: 110.63.
The projected closing price is: 111.59.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 21.5686. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 81 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.010 at 111.570. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 56% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
111.590 111.610 111.560 111.570 190
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.86 111.32 111.50
Volatility: 3 5 7
Volume: 80,598 90,023 102,031
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.
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