Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) inflation indicators next

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) inflation indicators next

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) inflation indicators next

The Japanese yen has ticked higher in the Monday session. In North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 113.46, up 0.45% on the day. On the release front, Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI dipped to 51.8, shy of the estimate of 53.0. This marked a 4-month low. Later in the day, Japan releases the Services Producer Price Index. There are no U.S indicators on the schedule. On Tuesday, Japan releases BoJ Core CPI, the preferred inflation indicator of the Bank of Japan. The U.S will publish CB Consumer Confidence, which is forecast to dip to 136.2 points.

Japanese inflation data will be in the spotlight on Monday and Tuesday. Last week, National Core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, came in at 1.0% on an annualized basis, for a second straight month. The BoJ’s target of around 2 percent remains elusive and inflation could face further headwinds, as the slowdown in China and the ongoing global trade war takes a bite out of the country’s export sector. As well, lower oil prices could also hamper inflation. There is little reason to expect that inflation will gather any upward momentum and some analysts are forecasting that inflation in 2018 will fall below the 1 percent level.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 114.73.

The projected lower bound is: 112.46.

The projected closing price is: 113.59.


A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 72.1127. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 37 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 7. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.620 at 113.560. Volume was 0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
112.940 113.640 112.850 113.560 108,332

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 113.16 112.97 110.29
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 121,349 114,414 107,810

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 3.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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