Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) higher as nervous investors seek safe-haven assets
USD/JPY has continued where it left off on Friday, as the pair as lost ground on Monday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.87, down 0.20% on the day. Earlier in the day, the pair touched a low of 110.28, its lowest level since March 28. It’s a quiet start to the week on the fundamentals front. There are no data releases in the U.S. In Japan, Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 49.5. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases JOLTS Job Openings and the BoJ releases the minutes of its March meeting.
President Trump sent the equity markets sharply lower on Monday, after threatening to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods as early as Friday, from 10% to 25%. Trump sounded nonchalant about the trade talks, saying that even if an agreement wasn’t reached, the U.S. would benefit from the new tariffs. This has boosted the yen, as nervous investors seek safe-haven assets such as the yen. China has threatened to cancel the talks, so traders should be prepared for some swings in the currency markets in the coming days.
On Friday, the focus was on U.S. employment data in April. The numbers were mixed, as nonfarm payrolls were strong, but wage growth remained soft. Average Hourly Earnings edged up to 0.2%, up from 0.1%. However, this missed the estimate of 0.3%. Nonfarm payrolls sparkled, climbing to 263 thousand, up from 196 thousand a month earlier. The reading easily beat the forecast of 181 thousand. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.6% in April, down from 3.8% a month earlier. This marked the lowest unemployment rate since 1969.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 111.83.
The projected lower bound is: 109.90.
The projected closing price is: 110.87.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.6626. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.92. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 86 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -222.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.220 at 110.870. Volume was 13% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 43% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
110.610 110.974 110.270 110.870 79,283
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.51 111.36 111.50
Volatility: 4 6 7
Volume: 76,422 88,159 101,399
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.