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Saturday, September 18, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) global flight to safety continues to benefit the pair

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) global flight to safety continues to benefit the pair

The greenback selling pressure picked up the pace in the last hour and dragged the USD/JPY pair farther below the 106.00 handle, back closer to multi-month lows set in the previous session.

Investors are growing increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the world economy in the wake of the recent escalation in the US-China trade tensions, which continued boosting demand for traditional safe-haven currencies – like the Japanese Yen.

A series of dovish central-bank surprises on Wednesday underscored the market concerns and were evident from the ongoing slump in the US Treasury bond yields, which weighed heavily on the US Dollar and further collaborated to the pair’s sharp intraday slide.

This coupled with possibilities of some short-term trading stops being triggered on a sustained break below the 106.00 handle further aggravated the bearish pressure, with bears now eyeing a follow-through slide below the overnight swing lows – around mid-105.00s.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on short-term charts remain on the verge of breaking into the oversold territory, which might eventually turn out to be the only factor that might help limit further downside amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 108.48.

The projected upper bound is: 107.20.

The projected lower bound is: 104.61.

The projected closing price is: 105.91.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 14.5927. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.96. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -144.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.490 at 105.980. Volume was 15% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 52% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
106.440 106.470 105.480 105.980 100,687
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 107.57 108.01 110.33
Volatility: 10 8 7
Volume: 92,243 88,629 95,621

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 3.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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