Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) gains ground on strong inflation
The second biggest development last week was the surge in Japanese yield. It’s started by rumors that BoJ is considering to tweak the policy under the yield curve control framework.
Under YCC, it’s targeting 10 year JGB yield at 0%. And BoJ could lift the target to 0.1%. 10 year JGB yield closed the week up 0.065% at 0.10%. That came after hitting as high as 0.113, highest in more than a year. That’s the primary reason in driving the Japanese Yen higher as the second strongest one last week.
It’s unsure which one started it all, US yield or Japanese yield, or it’s just a parallel development in coincidence. US 10 year yield (TNX) hit as high as 2.988 before closing at 2.960. Despite solid Q2 GDP report, TNX seemed to find it difficult to break through 3.0 handle.
Though, for the near term, further rise is expected as long as last week’s low at 2.928 holds. Current rebound is still in favor to extend to retest 3.115 high.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 112.21.
The projected lower bound is: 109.86.
The projected closing price is: 111.04.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.6363. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.190 at 111.030. Volume was 1% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 16% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
111.210 111.240 110.780 111.030 103,059
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.75 110.57 110.08
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 107,757 106,051 106,795
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.