Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) gains ground as greenback loses luster

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) gains ground as greenback loses luster

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) gains ground as greenback loses luster

USD/JPY recovered to 111.42 last week but failed to extend gain and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. And near term outlook is unchanged.

The corrective decline from 113.17 might extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will target 112.14 minor resistance first. Break will argue that larger rally is possibly resuming for above 113.17.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.59.

The projected lower bound is: 109.49.

The projected closing price is: 110.54.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 37.4005. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -111.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.040 at 110.530. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 48% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.510 110.600 110.490 110.530 2,053

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.88 111.02 109.87
Volatility: 5 6 8
Volume: 95,939 101,835 105,945

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.

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