Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) focus will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) focus  will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) focus will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan

Japanese inflation remains well below the BoJ’s target of just below 2.0%, and last week’s inflation indicators showed little change. The bank’s preferred inflation gauge, BoJ Core CPI, ticked lower to 0.6%, down from 0.7% in the previous release. Tokyo Core CPI remained pegged at 0.9%, its lowest gain in 2019.

In the U.S., durable goods orders rebounded nicely in June. The headline reading gained 2.0%, crushing the estimate of 0.8%. Core durable goods orders jumped 1.2%, easily beating the estimate of 0.2%. The week wrapped up with Advance GDP for Q2, which dropped to 2.1%. Still, this beat the estimate of 1.8%. The markets are eyeing the Federal Reserve, with the CME Group pricing a rate cut at 78%. This would mark the first rate cut since 2008.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.76.

The projected lower bound is: 107.52.

The projected closing price is: 108.64.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.0760. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 126.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.010 at 108.670. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.680 108.700 108.640 108.670 90
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.13 108.38 110.52
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 72,586 86,238 96,182

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.

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