Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) find themselves still very much locked in a ‘battle of the havens’ as global uncertainties economic uncertainties multiply
The Japanese Yen and the US Dollar find themselves still very much locked in a ‘battle of the havens’ as global uncertainties economic uncertainties multiply.
It’s sobering to consider that many in the markets quite seriously hoped to see a trade deal between the US and China by the time May ended. While that always seemed like a stretch, the actual collapse in trade relations between the two global titans has been quite shocking and continues to loom over all else.
‘All else’ includes plenty of other likely snags too, from the endless drama of Brexit to the clear fragmentation of European politics. China’s economy is in an unwelcome spotlight too, with its manufacturing sector revealed to have contracted once more in May after just two months of recovery.
No wonder then that assets perceived to offer safety in times of high risk should be sought and the Japanese Yen has been winning that haven fight.
USD/JPY has retreated quite sharply from the recent peaks scaled in late April. From the standpoint of technical analysis Yen bulls do look a little exhausted as a new trading week gets under way. With that in mind it may take some real bad news to bolster the general flight to safety and move USD/JPY meaningfully lower in the short term, even if more falls look all-too-likely further out.
There are a few possible triggers coming up in a week rich with important economic events. Australia’s central bank will give its monetary policy decision on Tuesday and is widely expected to instigate the first reduction in record-low interest rates since late 2016. Should it do so, riskier assets than the Yen might get an initial fillip at its expense, but this seems unlikely to last in the general atmosphere of uncertainty. The European Central Bank will also give a policy statement and, while it is not expected to act, it is hard to see how that organization can sound anything other then extremely cautious about the Eurozone’s prospects.
The week will end with official US employment numbers. This crucial series remains among the global economy’s few clear bright spots. Any outcome close to the 195,000 new non-farm jobs expected for May will probably see a measure of reassurance creep back in to trading.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.40.
The projected upper bound is: 109.33.
The projected lower bound is: 107.22.
The projected closing price is: 108.28.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.0751. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 29.31. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -209.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.050 at 108.310. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 1% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
108.360 108.390 108.240 108.310 2,035
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.43 110.74 111.36
Volatility: 9 6 7
Volume: 87,679 87,475 100,068
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that JPY= is currently in an oversold condition.
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