Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Federal Reserve meeting in focus
The US dollar has done very little in the hours ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting as one would expect, and now that we are testing the ¥108 level it’s very likely that we are going to perhaps try to pop higher. If we can break above the 200 day EMA then the market could go even higher than that. It currently sits just below the ¥109 level, so keep that level in mind as well. If we can break above that level, then it’s very likely that the trend will change and we could go much higher.
Remember that this pair is very sensitive to risk appetite so it will come down to whether or not the Federal Reserve looks like it’s willing to be as easy enough to propel stock markets higher.
If they are, then it’s very likely that this market will break out to the upside and continue to go much higher as the S&P 500 and the USD/JPY pair are relatively highly correlated. Alternately, if the Federal Reserve is for some reason hotkeys, then the USD/JPY pair may drop down towards the ¥107 level, which is the previous resistance level that the markets had recently broken out above and should now offer support based upon market memory.
All things being equal, this is a pair that will probably get what it wants, but we will have to wait and see. We are above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level which is somewhat bullish but that specter of the 200 day EMA above still causes some issues.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 109.91.
The projected lower bound is: 107.01.
The projected closing price is: 108.46.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.2055. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 66.14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 103.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.340 at 108.460. Volume was 7% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 40% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
108.110 108.460 108.070 108.460 84,743
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 107.72 107.11 109.34
Volatility: 3 9 7
Volume: 96,505 92,156 92,347
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.
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