Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) falls but remain above daily lows
USD/JPY fells but remain above daily lows.
The USD/JPY was hovering slightly below 113.00 before the release of the Fed’s decision and it dropped modestly afterwards. It bottomed at 112.76 and it was holding near the lows with a negative tone amid a slide of the US Dollar across the board, ahead of the release of the FOMC staff projections and Powell’s press conference.
The pair was still holding above daily lows and moving away from the 2-month highs it reached earlier at 113.04. US yields printed fresh daily lows after the statement. The 10-year fell to 3.06% while equity prices remained around previous levels.
The US central bank, as expected rose the key rate by 5bp. The statement contained a potential dovish twist as it removed the reference to policy being “accommodating”. Before the release of the statement, US President Trump said that Japan and the US have agreed to start trade negotiations.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 111.30.
The projected upper bound is: 113.79.
The projected lower bound is: 111.59.
The projected closing price is: 112.69.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 71.1866. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 50 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 24 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 112.690. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 20% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
112.730 112.740 112.650 112.690 1,804
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 112.47 111.40 109.75
Volatility: 4 6 8
Volume: 88,640 99,957 104,817
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.