Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Extra Gains Appear Unlikely

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Extra Gains Appear Unlikely

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Extra Gains Appear Unlikely

24-hour view: “USD traded sideways between 110.35 and 110.78 last Friday, slightly narrower than our expected 110.30/110.80 consolidation range. The outlook remains mixed and further sideway trading seems likely. That said, the underlying tone has weakened somewhat and this could lead to a lower trading range of 110.20/110.70”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “The price actions over the past couple of days offer no fresh clues and we continue to hold the same view wherein “USD is expected to stay supported but any strength is unlikely to be sustained”. Only a break of the 110.10 ‘key support’ would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. Until then, there is scope for USD to test the recent high near 111.10 but at this stage, the odds for further extension to 111.50 are not high”.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 111.90.

The projected lower bound is: 109.80.

The projected closing price is: 110.85.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.3023. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 34 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 96. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.010 at 110.830. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 52% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.840 110.840 110.780 110.830 2,588

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.60 110.01 110.12
Volatility: 4 6 8
Volume: 94,252 98,056 105,476

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.

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