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Thursday, September 16, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) exposed to test new support levels

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) exposed to test new support levels

On the USD / JPY daily chart below, it seems clear that the price of the pair is exposed to test new support levels in the event of moving around and below the 105 psychological support, the lowest in seven months. Attempts for a bullish correction are still weak and lack momentum to make this work. For the last two trading sessions the pair has attempted to break below 105.50 support and stabilized around 106.12 at the time of writing, awaiting any developments. 

The Japanese yen remains the strongest as investor rush to it as a safe haven amid growing global trade and geopolitical tensions. 

The developments of the global trade war have reached a currency war that could lead to a severe global economic crisis if the United States considers responding to China’s recent step to weaken the Chinese Yuan below the level of 7 dollars to crush US exports at world markets and weaken the competitiveness of these products vs less expensive Chinese products.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 108.38.

The projected upper bound is: 107.27.

The projected lower bound is: 104.71.

The projected closing price is: 105.99.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 23.8929. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.35. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -109.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.200 at 106.060. Volume was 25% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 57% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
106.260 106.290 105.880 106.060 110,011
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 107.34 107.95 110.30
Volatility: 9 8 7
Volume: 96,529 89,005 95,654

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 3.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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