Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) expected to post a trade surplus after recording six successive deficits
USD/JPY continues to show little movement this week. In Tuesday’s North American session, the pair is trading at 110.63, up 0.03% on the day. On the release front, there are no major events out of the United States. Japan is expected to post a trade surplus after recording six successive deficits. On Wednesday, the FOMC releases the minutes of its January policy meeting.
China is Japan’s biggest trading partner, so it’s no surprise that the slowdown in China is having a negative impact on the Japanese economy. The manufacturing and export sectors are particularly vulnerable, with Japan exporting car parts and electronics to China. This has resulted in a string of monthly trade deficits, as the global trade war has dampened the appetite for Japanese exports. There was positive news last week, as Japan’s economy grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter, after a decline of 0.6% in the third quarter. Business and consumer spending improved, helping the economy expand. Exports rose 0.9% in Q4, the strongest growth in a year. However, if the global trade war continues, Japanese growth could dramatically fall.
Traders should treat the Federal Reserve minutes as a market-mover. Since raising rates in December, the Fed has changed direction and become much more dovish. In late 2018, there was talk of up to four rate hikes in 2019, but the Fed has revised its forecast to two hikes. The markets have gone further, projecting no rate increases this year, and there has even been talk of a rate cut in late 2019. In the January rate statement, the Fed discarded previous pledges of “further gradual increases” in interest rates, and said it would be “patient” before any further hikes.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 111.95.
The projected lower bound is: 109.14.
The projected closing price is: 110.55.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 41.2878. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 33 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.010 at 110.600. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
110.620 110.660 110.510 110.600 3,005
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.41 110.00 111.30
Volatility: 5 8 7
Volume: 83,399 95,449 105,386
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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