Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) expect choppy behaviour

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) expect choppy behaviour

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) expect choppy behaviour

The US dollar pulled back slightly during the trading session on Wednesday in early trading, as we continue to bang up against the crucial 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If we can get a major breakout from here, this could be monumental.

The US dollar has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Wednesday in order to reach towards the 200 day EMA. What is particularly interesting is that the 200 day EMA is starting to offer a bit of support. That’s a strong sign for the buyers if we can possibly make that breakout.

The 200 day EMA of course is crucial, because it is a longer-term trend following type of indicator. If we continue to see the market stay above the 200 day EMA, is very likely that it is only a matter of time before we make the longer-term break out and go looking towards the 100% EMA which is closer to the ¥112 level.

Don’t be wrong, the ¥110 level will of course offer significant resistance above, but breaking out from this point would suggest a rough “inverse head and shoulders”, which of course is a very bullish pattern as well. Ultimately, everything is lining up for a breakout, and with the “risk on” attitude that we have seen out of Wall Street, it would make sense that as the S&P 500 goes higher, the dollar/yen pair will continue to see a lot of volatility, but should be rather positive in general.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 108.09.

The projected upper bound is: 110.00.

The projected lower bound is: 108.06.

The projected closing price is: 109.03.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 73.2697. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 61 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 109.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.180 at 108.970. Volume was 5% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 52% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
109.150 109.180 108.800 108.970 85,926
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.68 107.85 109.02
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 81,575 90,757 90,732

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

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