Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Direction Undecided
The US dollar has broken down a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to dance just above the ¥110 level. That’s an area that should cause a bit of support, but quite frankly I think at this point we are more or less in consolidation.
The ¥109 level underneath should be support, while the ¥111 level above should be resistance. I think that short-term back and forth trading is probably going to be the order of the day, with the ¥110 level being essentially what I would consider to be “fair value.”
Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to struggle but I think that clarity could come in September when senior traders come back from holiday. At most firms currently, we have Junior traders pushing buttons to keep larger positions from falling apart.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 111.11.
The projected lower bound is: 109.00.
The projected closing price is: 110.05.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 11.8355. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 23 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -171.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed unchanged at 110.060. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
110.050 110.100 110.020 110.060 2,243
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.70 111.00 109.85
Volatility: 5 6 8
Volume: 97,605 102,163 105,854
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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