Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) determined by investor appetite for risk
The Dollar/Yen is being pressured on Monday from lower demand for risky assets. U.S. stock market weakness is driving some investors into the safe-haven Japanese Yen. The catalysts behind the weakness are weaker-than-expected trade data from China and concerns over the U.S. government shutdown. Investors are also worried about stocks due to the start of earnings season.
The direction of the USD/JPY on Monday will continue to be determined by investor appetite for risk. If the “risk-off” theme continues then the Forex pair should weaken further. A sudden shift to “risk-on” will turn the Dollar/Yen higher.
Traders should monitor the news for any updates on the government shutdown because positive developments could turn the stock market around and consequently the USD/JPY.
Traders should also pay close attention to the earnings report because they could raise the volatility levels in the stock market, which will also increase demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 111.00.
The projected upper bound is: 109.51.
The projected lower bound is: 106.64.
The projected closing price is: 108.08.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 41.3437. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.020 at 108.180. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 80% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
108.150 108.190 108.120 108.180 3,219
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.39 111.80 111.15
Volatility: 10 8 7
Volume: 89,039 107,573 104,976
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.