Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) could see a bounce
The US dollar fell hard against the Japanese yen initially during the trading session on Friday after the ¥111.50 level gave away. Beyond that, we had a jobs number that was horrific, in the sense that only 20,000 jobs were added last month, as opposed to the expected 180,000. In that scenario, the dollar was always going to lose but we have found a certain amount of psychological and structural support lining up at the ¥111 level, not only because of the round number, but the previous order flow and the 200 day EMA.
The way we have stabilized late in the day it suggests that we very well could see a bounce from here. At this point, I suspect it’s very likely that we will go looking towards the ¥111.50 level again.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.77.
The projected upper bound is: 112.36.
The projected lower bound is: 110.04.
The projected closing price is: 111.20.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 29.9147. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 46 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -16. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.020 at 111.170. Volume was 59% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
111.120 111.300 110.860 111.170 41,778
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.41 109.93 111.40
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 85,042 93,453 104,314
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 30 periods.