Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) could have another opportunity to resume its drop from Q2
Against the Japanese Yen, the Greenback did lose some momentum this past week. This is in-line with my third quarter USD/JPY technical forecast as rising support from June 2016 was taken out. While at first this seemed to be a false breakout to the downside, prices retested this critical area as it established itself as resistance earlier this month.
Yet, I am still looking to confirm this downside breakout and a key barrier that appears to have been reinforced is a range between 106.78 – 107.21. Clearing this opens the door for downtrend resumption, but positive RSI divergence warns that downside momentum is fading. This may precede a reversal or translate into further consolidation.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 108.79.
The projected lower bound is: 106.52.
The projected closing price is: 107.66.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 22.1241. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -109.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.410 at 107.700. Volume was 3% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
107.280 107.960 107.200 107.700 86,368
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.14 108.55 110.64
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 77,988 89,319 97,669
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.