Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) correcting lower, but still bullish

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) correcting lower, but still bullish

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) correcting lower, but still bullish

The USD/JPY pair peaked at 112.79 at the end of the week, its highest since last January, before easing partially to end Friday at 112.32. Friday’s decline was moderated when compared to previous weekly gains, as the pair held firmly above the 112.00 figure.

The positive mood among equities’ traders have kept the pair afloat, despite US Treasury yields underperformed, slipping after US Consumer Sentiment fell to its lowest in six months. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled for the week at 2.829%, pretty much unchanged weekly basis. Japan will start the week with a holiday, which may see limited volumes during the first session of the day.

In the daily chart, the pair is well above its moving averages, but with the 100 DMA advancing slowly below the 200 DMA. Technical indicators have pulled lower from extreme levels, but remain within overbought readings, suggesting a possible downward corrective movement ahead, but without confirming it, and without denying the dominant bullish trend. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators also corrected extreme overbought conditions but lost downward strength well above their midlines, as the price remains far above its moving averages, in line with the longer term perspective.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.13.

The projected upper bound is: 113.44.

The projected lower bound is: 111.21.

The projected closing price is: 112.32.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.9635. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 69.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 126.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.100 at 112.260. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 28% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
112.340 112.380 112.180 112.260 294

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.31 110.25 110.12
Volatility: 7 6 8
Volume: 94,737 100,502 105,772

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 1.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.

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