Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) continues to see a lot of resistance
The US dollar has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of resistance near the ¥110 level. That’s an area that of course will attract a lot of attention, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where we have seen selling in the past. The question now is whether or not we break higher or lower? This next move could be crucial due to the fact that if we break higher and make a fresh new high, then it should continue the overall uptrend. However, if the market breaks down below the hammer from the trading session on Monday, then it could signify a “lower high.” That could lead to a little bit more significant trouble.
To the downside though, there is a significant amount of support at the 50 day EMA and of course the uptrend line at the bottom of the overall uptrend channel. The uptrend channel of course offers quite a bit of support, and a breakdown below there could open up a move all the way back down to the ¥105 level. The reason I say that is that the longer-term charts suggest that ¥105 on the bottom is supported as well as the ¥115 level above being resistive. In other words, the ¥110 level is essentially “fair value” for the market in general. I anticipate that it will continue to be difficult to break above, lease for anything substantial but if it does, that would be a very bullish sign.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 110.68.
The projected lower bound is: 108.92.
The projected closing price is: 109.80.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 71.5868. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 131 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 79. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.010 at 109.780. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 10% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
109.770 109.810 109.760 109.780 1,472
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.43 109.28 108.37
Volatility: 6 5 7
Volume: 79,906 75,382 86,710
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.
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