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Saturday, September 18, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) continues to see a lot of global uncertainty

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) continues to see a lot of global uncertainty

The ¥105 level was tested early during the trading session on Monday, as we finally fulfilled that move that I had been talking about. The question now is whether or not we stay above there or if we break down going forward. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, but I suspect that if we break the ¥104.80 level, then we should go much lower.

At that point, I suspect that we would be looking at the ¥102.50 level, and then the ¥100 level. I suspect that somewhere closer to the ¥100 level we will be hearing more from the Bank of Japan, as they will not like that move and are one of the few central banks that seem to jump into the currency markets rather quickly.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 108.07.

The projected upper bound is: 106.44.

The projected lower bound is: 104.09.

The projected closing price is: 105.27.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 21.5488. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 28.69. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -107.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.340 at 105.320. Volume was 4% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 88% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
105.570 105.690 105.030 105.320 84,972
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 106.69 107.84 110.23
Volatility: 9 7 7
Volume: 103,084 88,524 95,690

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 4.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that JPY= is currently in an oversold condition.

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