Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) continues to be very choppy

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) continues to be very choppy

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) continues to be very choppy

The US dollar went back and forth during the trading session on Monday, as we tested the ¥108 level. That level has been important more than once, so it makes sense that the market would find buyers in that region.

That being said, I believe that the market will probably continue to be very choppy, but this area features both the ¥108 level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Signs of life in that area should send the market back towards the ¥109 level, but if we were to break down below there, things get ugly.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.25.

The projected upper bound is: 109.01.

The projected lower bound is: 106.99.

The projected closing price is: 108.00.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 6.4235. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 27.09. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -182.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.010 at 108.050. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 20% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
108.070 108.080 108.020 108.050 4,424

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.16 110.68 111.34
Volatility: 8 6 7
Volume: 88,775 87,504 100,025

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 3.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that JPY= is currently in an oversold condition.

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