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Friday, July 30, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Consolidating

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Consolidating

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to dance around the 50 and the 200 day EMA indicators. At this point, the market doesn’t necessarily look as if it is ready to go anywhere anytime soon, so I believe that the market will eventually have to make up its mind. In the short term though, the pair is better used as an indicator of Japanese yen strength or weakness. In other words, this pair is falling it means that the Japanese yen is strengthening, and you should be looking to buy the Japanese yen against currencies that are closer to support or resistance.

At this point, we need to see this pair move a bit before we get into an area that is simply the same thing as flipping a coin. In other words, I would like to see this pair form a selling signal near the ¥105 level, or perhaps the ¥111 level. As we are in the middle of this big range, so therefore it’s very difficult to imagine a scenario that the market should be traded with any type of size. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the chart is useless, like I said it functions as a nice secondary indicator. Notice that the moving averages are essentially flat as well, so this is a very “neutral” type of situation. 

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 112.41.

The projected lower bound is: 105.49.

The projected closing price is: 108.95.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.3388. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -4. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.140 at 108.950. Volume was 74% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 40% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.810 109.060 108.780 108.950 27,728
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.24 108.74 108.34
Volatility: 12 21 12
Volume: 148,270 131,076 96,937

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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