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Monday, July 26, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bulls Are Still Strong

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bulls Are Still Strong

USD/JPY has bounced off session lows at 108.67 and was trading at 109.10.

The pair’s near-term outlook has turned bullish after breakout at 200+DMA resistance on Monday’s trade.

On the economic front, Japan’s preliminary estimate of the February Leading Economic Index, came in at 92.1, beating the market’s forecast. 

The Coincident Index for the February month was also better than anticipated, rising to 95.8.

Improving COVID-19 situation in some of the worst-hit countries dampens demand for the safe-haven yen.

Major trend in the pair is neutral, but minor trend is showing signs of bullishness as evidenced by the GMMA indicator.

Next major resistance aligns at 109.79 (daily cloud), break above to see retest of March highs at 111.71. 

21-EMA is immediate support at 108.50. Retrace below 200-DMA negates any bullish bias.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 112.14.

The projected lower bound is: 105.21.

The projected closing price is: 108.67.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.1267. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.020 at 108.680. Volume was 76% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 66% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.700 108.850 108.480 108.680 25,254
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.29 108.74 108.33
Volatility: 14 21 12
Volume: 149,628 129,675 96,527

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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