Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bullish Outlook

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bullish Outlook

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bullish Outlook

The USD/JPY exchange rate has experienced a very strong rise over the past three trading days but has found some difficulty maintaining a breakout higher. If the Friday candlestick were to close below Thursday’s high, this would have been a clear indication of some indecision followed by very apparent weakness to any move higher. It was very possible the close of the day would form, depending on interpretation, a doji candlestick with a close just below the open for the day.

113.15 is the high point seen in July. 112.15 was a swing high early in the month.

111.50 was a swing high in late August. 110.60 supported the pair in late July and remains relevant.

109.70 was a swing low in late August and provides extra support below the round 110 level.

Close by, 109.35 was a cushion in mid-July. 108.70 was a cushion early in the summer and 108.10 a swing low in late May.

Lower, we find 107.50 capped the pair in early April and is a strong line.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 112.43.

The projected lower bound is: 110.22.

The projected closing price is: 111.33.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 90.7814. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 118.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.090 at 111.310. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 31% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
111.240 111.360 111.230 111.310 972

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.79 111.05 109.82
Volatility: 6 6 8
Volume: 100,028 102,894 105,679

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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