Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) bull scenario remains a priority

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) bull scenario remains a priority

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) bull scenario remains a priority

The bull scenario remains a priority: 70% of the experts, supported by 100% of the trend indicators, look to the north. According to them, if the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds continues to grow, the pair, relying on support around 112.00, can rise to the area of 113.00-114.20.

However, since at the moment the pair is in the reversal zone near the upper boundary of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15, a downward rebound of the pair is not excluded, as evidenced by signals from 25% of oscillators indicating it is overbought. Support levels are 110.85, 110.35 and the lower boundary of the channel is 109.70. USD/JPY quotes can also be affected by US-Japanese trade negotiations at the beginning of the upcoming week;

Among other events to which attention should be paid are the following publications: data on the UK labor market and the index of business sentiment ZEW (Germany) on Tuesday, April 16; China’s GDP, the UK Consumer Price Index and the Eurozone Inflation Report on Wednesday April 17; UK and US retail sales data on Thursday, April 18; and finally, Japan’s consumer price index on Friday, April 19;

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.96.

The projected upper bound is: 113.08.

The projected lower bound is: 111.06.

The projected closing price is: 112.07.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 67.7019. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.58. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 70 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 126.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.370 at 112.020. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
111.650 112.090 111.570 112.020 84,528

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.48 110.96 111.50
Volatility: 5 6 7
Volume: 88,286 93,132 103,501

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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