Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) builds support at 108.47

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) builds support at 108.47

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) builds support at 108.47

A similar scenario as discussed in USD/CHF exists currently in USD/JPY. Prices put in a lower-high earlier this week, keeping the door open for bearish swing scenarios. And price action so far this week has tipped-lower, finding support at a Fibonacci level of relevance; keeping potential on both sides of the pair ahead of today’s FOMC.

For bullish scenarios, traders can hone-in on the hold around 108.47, looking for prices to re-test the 109.00 figure that came in as the early-July swing-high. Beyond that, another zone of resistance potential exists around 109.67-110.00, and this could function as a secondary profit target. On the short side of USD/JPY, a breach of the 108.47 short-term support opens the door for a move down to 108.00, followed by target potential at 107.50 and 107.00, which came in as the June swing-low. 

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.89.

The projected lower bound is: 107.67.

The projected closing price is: 108.78.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.8271. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 116.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.220 at 108.810. Volume was 8% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.600 108.990 108.480 108.810 80,105

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.27 108.32 110.49
Volatility: 5 7 7
Volume: 78,121 87,004 95,999

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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