Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) broken down through two major retracements of this year’s rise

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) broken down through two major retracements of this year’s rise

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) broken down through two major retracements of this year’s rise

The Japanese Yen’s current backstory is of course fundamental, with risk aversion stemming from increased US-China trade tensions supporting what is, after all, perhaps the quintessential anti-growth currency play.

The US Dollar has haven appeal too, of course, but the Japanese Yen is certainly beating it at present, with USD/JPY having wilted very sharply back to lows not seen since the start of February. So much for the fundamentals, how has the technical picture changed?

Well, the pair has now slipped back through the first two Fibonacci retracement levels of this year’s overall rise from the lows of early January to the peak of late April when trade began to take a toll.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.66.

The projected upper bound is: 110.78.

The projected lower bound is: 108.87.

The projected closing price is: 109.82.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 72.4917. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.010 at 109.850. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 58% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
109.840 109.870 109.820 109.850 2,128

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.89 111.07 111.43
Volatility: 5 5 7
Volume: 82,863 86,974 100,779

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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