Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) breaking above the top of the shooting star
The US dollar broke higher during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking above the top of the inverted hammer that forms for the Monday session. By doing so, it shows signs of strength and we could very well see this market climb from here to reach towards the 108.50 level. That’s an area that has seen some action as of late and the 50 day EMA is starting to reach towards it. Because of this, I think this is a short-term rally that is simply more of a grind back and forth.
The market is very sensitive to risk appetite, so keep that in mind. The S&P 500 of course is a great barometer of risk appetite and the two markets do tend to move in the same direction during the day. However, if we can break above the 108.75 level, then we go to the 109.75 level after that.
To the downside, if we were to break down below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level we could then go towards the 107.00 level after that. Overall though, I think what we are going to see is more of a back-and-forth type of market, perhaps trying to build up enough momentum to go in one direction or the other.
This does look like a bottoming pattern in general, but obviously we can’t confirm that until we break out to the upside, something that doesn’t seem likely to happen in the short term as market simply have nowhere to be as we are in the dead of summer right now.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 109.29.
The projected lower bound is: 107.10.
The projected closing price is: 108.19.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 31.3667. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.010 at 108.230. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 17% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
108.240 108.260 108.190 108.230 2,182
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.30 108.65 110.69
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 68,715 88,169 97,811
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.
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