Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) BOJ’s Kuroda: Not Considering Further Monetary Easing Now

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) BOJ’s Kuroda:  Not Considering Further Monetary Easing Now

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) BOJ’s Kuroda: Not Considering Further Monetary Easing Now

The Dollar/Yen closed higher last week with the buying driven by higher Treasury yields and a rising stock market. The catalysts behind the strength were optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal and a strong U.S. economy. News from Japan continued to point toward a weakening economy and the possibility of further easing from the Bank of Japan.

If investors were nervous about the lack of concrete evidence that the U.S. and China were making progress toward a trade deal, it’s didn’t show up in the financial markets last week. U.S. stock market futures hit record highs and Treasury yields inched higher.

Throughout the week, traders were closely monitoring U.S. and China relations ahead of a December 15 deadline for a fresh round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, China’s foreign ministry has claimed the U.S. has “sinister intentions” after President Donald Trump signed legislation supporting protesters in Hong Kong.

BOJ’s Kuroda:  Not Considering Further Monetary Easing Now

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko said he was not considering further monetary easing at present, adding he would not hesitate to ease policy further if risks to the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target heighten.

The central bank is not at a stage where it needs to consider the timing and method of exit from monetary stimulus either, he told the financial committee of parliament’s lower house.

Kuroda also said on Friday that the central bank would not hesitate to ease policy further if the momentum towards its price stability target is lost as there’s “ample room” for more easing.

Speaking at parliament’s lower house financial committee, Kuroda also said the BOJ would weigh costs and benefits if the central bank were to deploy additional easing steps.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda also said the central bank’s ultra-loose policy is aimed at hitting its inflation target, rather than funding government spending, warning against complacency in getting Japan’s fiscal house in order.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 110.47.

The projected lower bound is: 108.67.

The projected closing price is: 109.57.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.2482. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 79 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 120.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.020 at 109.530. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 41% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
109.520 109.550 109.470 109.530 4,627
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 109.04 108.45 108.91
Volatility: 3 5 7
Volume: 77,900 86,797 89,531

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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