Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bearish Reversal at 61.8% Fibonacci Resistance Near 109

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bearish Reversal at 61.8% Fibonacci Resistance Near 109

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bearish Reversal at 61.8% Fibonacci Resistance Near 109

On the daily chart below, it seems clear that the USD/JPY is trying to avoid reaching the 108.00 support so as not to confirm the breach of the general bullish trend. During yesterday’s session, it rose to 109.07 resistance, but returned to move down towards 108.60 support at the time of writing.

Renewed concern over the future of the US-China trade agreement remains in favor of the Japanese yen as an ideal safe haven in times of uncertainty in financial markets. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump summoned Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the White House to discuss the economy and interest rates – issues that Trump often attacked the Powell-led Fed for.

The US central bank remains confident in the economic performance of the United States and has stopped the rate cut until it monitors developments resulting from its three cuts throughout 2019. Most economists believe that Powell will continue to resist Trump’s pressure. Some consider Jerome Powell politically more flexible than his predecessors, such as Ben Bernanke.

At the economic level. Following an unexpected announcement of improved confidence among US home builders the previous month, the National Association of Home Builders released a report showing that confidence fell slightly in November. The NAHB index fell to a reading of 70 in November after rising to 71 in October, the report said. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged. The modest decline came after the housing market index rose for four consecutive months to its highest level since a similar reading in February 2018.

Technical Analysis

The bearish momentum of USD/JPY will increase if it crosses the 108.00 support, and as a result, it may move towards stronger support levels near 107.75, 107.00 and 106.45 respectively, which may occur if pessimism persists for the future of a trade agreement for first phase between the two sides of the world trade war. On the upside, the 110.00 psychological resistance remains the key for the strength of this trend.

As for the economic calendar data today: There are no Japanese economic releases today and all focus will be on US data as the Commerce Department is scheduled to issue a detailed report on the residential construction in the country for the month of October. Housing starts are expected to jump to 1.320 million year-on-year in October after falling to 1.256 million in September. Economists expect building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, to fall to 1.385 million after falling to 1.387 million the previous month.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.49.

The projected lower bound is: 107.61.

The projected closing price is: 108.55.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 40.5940. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 70 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.130 at 108.530. Volume was 4% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 47% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.660 108.840 108.440 108.530 87,380
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.87 108.25 108.98
Volatility: 4 6 7
Volume: 87,296 89,945 90,350

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.

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