Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy
The Japanese yen has posted slight gains in the Wednesday session, after recording losses in the past two sessions. In North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 113.15, up 0.06% on the day. On the release front, the Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy. Japanese Preliminary Industrial Production dropped 1.1%, its fourth decline in five months. This was a much steeper decline than the estimate of -0.3%. Housing Starts slipped 1.5%, while consumer confidence came in at 43.0 points. Both indicators fell short of their estimates. In the U.S, ADP nonfarm payrolls came in at 227 thousand, much stronger than the estimate of 188 thousand. This is the first of a host of employment releases, highlighted by wage growth and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. On Thursday, the U.S releases unemployment claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
As expected, there were no surprises from the Bank of Japan, which wrapped up a policy meeting on Wednesday. Policymakers voted 7-2 to maintain interest rates at -0.10% and 10-year bond yields around zero. The BoJ said that it would maintain ultra-low rates for an “extended period” and the would allow more flexibility in the movement of 10-year bonds. On the inflation front, the BoJ reiterated that inflation levels would not reach the BoJ’s target of 2$ before March 2021. The policy statement added that there were currently more downside risks to the economy than upside, due to the impact of the tariff war between the U.S and China as well as the impasse over Brexit negotiations.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 114.16.
The projected lower bound is: 111.81.
The projected closing price is: 112.98.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.5755. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 132.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.020 at 112.950. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
112.930 112.980 112.880 112.950 5,684
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 112.56 112.30 109.88
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 111,545 105,950 108,483
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.