Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bank of Japan is widely expected to press on with its ultra-loose monetary policy

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bank of Japan is widely expected to press on with its ultra-loose monetary policy

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Bank of Japan is widely expected to press on with its ultra-loose monetary policy

The Dollar/Yen rose last week as buyers returned to the stock market, dampening the attraction of the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven asset. However, the biggest influence on the Forex pair was the diverging monetary policies of the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Bank of Japan.

While the Fed remains on track to raise interest rates, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to press on with its ultra-loose monetary policy because of low growth and inflation.

Additionally, the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japanese Government bonds has made the U.S. Dollar a more attractive asset than the Japanese Yen, which is often used as a funding currency for carry trades.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 112.38.

The projected upper bound is: 115.02.

The projected lower bound is: 112.69.

The projected closing price is: 113.85.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 85.4544. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 106.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.020 at 113.800. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
113.820 113.840 113.780 113.800 142

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 113.37 112.63 110.03
Volatility: 5 7 7
Volume: 97,907 105,805 107,995

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 3.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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