Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) awaiting the job numbers
The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday against the Japanese yen but it seems as if the pullback is starting to stick a little bit as the ¥108 level has been a bit of a magnet for price. Just below there we have the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which I think also offers plenty of support. With that being the case, it’s very likely that the market will bounce a bit from here, but the jobs number of course can change everything. With that in mind I’m watching a couple of levels.
If we were to break down below the 107.70 level, that would be very negative, and I think at this point it probably opens up the door down to the 105 handle underneath as typically when you give up the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a lot of selling ensues. However, if we turn on a break above the highs of the last couple of sessions, then we probably go looking towards the ¥109 level, possibly even the ¥109.70 level.
Pay attention to stock markets, and of course the jobs number, because the better they are typically the better that this market does. I do believe that we are at an inflection point, so the ¥108 level being “fair value” is how you have to look at this chart in general. However, once we break in one direction or the other, the market should suddenly shift towards the previously mentioned targets going forward.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.17.
The projected upper bound is: 109.49.
The projected lower bound is: 107.45.
The projected closing price is: 108.47.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A hammer occurred (a hammer has a long lower shadow and closes near the high). Hammers must appear after a significant decline or when prices are oversold (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=) to be valid. When this occurs, it usually indicates the formation of a support level and is thus considered a bullish pattern.
A hanging man occurred (a hanging man has a very long lower shadow and a small real body). This pattern can be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend. If it occurs during an uptrend it is called a hanging man line and signifies a reversal top. If it occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=) it is called a bullish hammer.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 27.6947. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.060 at 108.510. Volume was 3% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
108.450 108.530 108.010 108.510 94,055
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.88 110.60 111.32
Volatility: 8 6 7
Volume: 98,022 88,616 100,207
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.