Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) at risk of fresh downward move

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) at risk of fresh downward move

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) at risk of fresh downward move

The USD/JPY has traded in a tight range over the past week, moving from ¥109.20 to ¥110.00.

A break above ¥110.00 would target the 200-day SMA at ¥111.14, while a push below ¥109.00 suggests that the pair has topped out and will resume the downward move in place since the end of September.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 110.67.

The projected lower bound is: 107.78.

The projected closing price is: 109.22.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 43.0712. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 39. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.240 at 109.290. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 24% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
109.510 109.590 109.140 109.290 96,941

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.38 111.08 111.25
Volatility: 5 8 7
Volume: 100,848 105,837 104,917

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 36 periods.

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