Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) appears ripe for a pullback given the grind at support around the 107.00

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) appears ripe for a pullback given the grind at support around the 107.00

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) appears ripe for a pullback given the grind at support around the 107.00

Back on the short-side of the US Dollar, USDJPY has been an area of focus for the past month. The pair has done a fairly decent job of reflecting risk tonalities this year; flying-higher through Q1 as equity markets ripped. And then posing a stutter-step in late-April/early-May as risk aversion reared its ugly head again. Where matters began to diverge, however, was in early-June, as those dovish comments from Chair Powell propelled stocks up to fresh all-time-highs while, seemingly, USD/JPY languished near support.

As I wrote yesterday, USDJPY appeared ripe for a pullback given the grind at support around the 107.00 target. That pullback has already started to show, and this puts emphasis on lower-high resistance potential around prior support. That zone comes-in around the 108.00-area, and a show of sellers here re-opens the door for short-side themes in the pair.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 109.24.

The projected upper bound is: 108.67.

The projected lower bound is: 106.64.

The projected closing price is: 107.66.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 11 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 55.5035. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 107.740. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
107.780 107.800 107.680 107.740 1,534

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 107.82 109.53 111.05
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 79,867 87,625 99,393

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 3.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 38 periods.

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