Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) 112.00 still eludes bulls to the upside

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) 112.00 still eludes bulls to the upside

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) 112.00 still eludes bulls to the upside

The Japanese Yen has managed to fend off challenges from Dollar bulls since late February with the psychological 112.00 level remaining out of reach for USD/JPY.

The pair did manage to poke above that point on an intraday basis on February 28 and again on March 5. However daily closes above the line proved elusive and the Dollar has since retreated from the upper reaches of the 111.00 handle.

Dollar bulls are by no means out of the game, but the uncommitted might want to wait and see whether they can manage a higher high over the next week-or-so’s trading. This is possible but hardly certain.

If they can, then a period of consolidation above 112.00 (probably involving at least one weekly close) will likely be needed before the pair can tackle the next upside target. That’s a zone of resistance between 112.49 and 113.03 that bars the way up to the last significant peak- December 13’s 113.70.

USD/JPY remains well within its uptrend channel, so these higher tests remain very much on the cards even if progress may be slow.

To the downside the pair can expect immediate support between 110.42 and 110.9, which is where trade was concentrated between mid-late February. Channel support meanwhile is some way below the market, in the 109.90 region.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.77.

The projected upper bound is: 112.53.

The projected lower bound is: 110.21.

The projected closing price is: 111.37.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.5846. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 47 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.150 at 111.340. Volume was 48% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 34% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
111.190 111.460 111.160 111.340 53,307

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.49 109.97 111.40
Volatility: 5 7 7
Volume: 86,156 95,324 104,223

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 31 periods.

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