Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) 111.80 would suggest further USD weakness
We held the same view since last Thursday (18 Oct, spot at 112.65) wherein “USD has moved into a consolidation phase” and is expected to trade sideways within a 111.80/113.30 range. The price action since then is line with our expectation as USD traded sideways between 111.93 and 112.88 for the past several days.
That said, the soft daily closing in NY (112.25, -0.16%) has weakened the underlying tone and from here, the risk of a clear break of 111.80 has increased. A break of this level would suggest USD could weaken further to the next support at 111.20. All in, USD is expected to stay under pressure unless it can break above the ‘key resistance’ at 112.80.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 113.70.
The projected lower bound is: 111.34.
The projected closing price is: 112.52.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 50.5052. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -30. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.240 at 112.490. Volume was 38% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 25% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
112.230 112.670 111.810 112.490 146,235
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 112.35 112.09 109.81
Volatility: 6 7 8
Volume: 121,751 106,930 108,955
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.