Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) ¥105 level will be targeted

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) ¥105 level will be targeted

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) ¥105 level will be targeted

The US dollar broke down a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, dropping from the ¥107 level. This is an area that was previous support, so the fact that it has offered resistance should not be a huge surprise. With that in mind I believe that the market will continue to go lower, perhaps reaching down towards the ¥105 level underneath which had been support.

All things being equal, I do think that we are going to go down there but we need to be cautious as this pair is going to be very sensitive to the US/China trade situation. We are only one headline away from jumping around again, so at this point it’s very likely that we are going to see a lot of choppiness.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 107.97.

The projected upper bound is: 107.18.

The projected lower bound is: 104.44.

The projected closing price is: 105.81.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.2475. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.19. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 105.860. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 93% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
105.900 105.910 105.840 105.860 344
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 106.07 107.71 110.11
Volatility: 12 8 7
Volume: 98,463 87,183 95,095

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 3.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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