Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) ¥105 level is the bottom of consolidation
The US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, hanging about the ¥107 level. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, as it is so sensitive to risk appetite in general. Ultimately, this is a market that will move up and down with things such as the stock market and of course against bonds.
At this point in time there seems to be a lot of concern out there and I do think that it’s only a matter time before we get enough trouble out there to throw this market around, and I suspect that the path lower is probably going to be easier than the path higher. With that being the case I think that it is very likely to be a noisy couple of weeks as volume comes back from summer.
To the downside, the ¥105 level is the bottom of consolidation, and the ¥108 level above is the next resistance barrier. This is a market that continues to react to the US/China trade negotiations, and the overall geopolitical situation.
At this point in time I suspect that all we need is one Tweet or one errant headline to send this market right back down. That being the case though, it’s going to be very difficult to hang onto a trade in either direction as the volatility is going to continue to be nauseating. Quite frankly, I’m looking for negative news to push this market back down towards the ¥105 level but one only can guess at this point.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 108.69.
The projected lower bound is: 105.72.
The projected closing price is: 107.21.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.0620. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 158.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.330 at 107.230. Volume was 8% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 35% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
106.810 107.240 106.750 107.230 84,073
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 106.42 107.14 109.52
Volatility: 6 9 7
Volume: 92,702 90,002 93,482
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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