Japanese Yen (¥) Trade Balance Below Expectations

Japanese Yen (¥) Trade Balance Below Expectations

The Japanese Yen slipped a little Thursday after its homeland’s trade balance came up short. Exports nonetheless continue to rise very strongly and the data were far from weak overall.

  • Japan’s June trade balance came in some way below expectations
  • However, the reason for this seems to have been higher imports
  • This may not displease the Bank of Japan, which will set monetary policy later Thursday

Official figures showed a balance of JPY439.9 billion (US$3.9 billion), some way below the JPY488 billion which markets had expected. However, behind the headlines were a robust, 15.5% annualized gain for imports and a 9.7% export rise. Exports have now gained for seven straight months, with external demand embedded a clear driver of Japanese growth. Shipments to China were especially strong, rising 19.5% on the year. Asia as a whole took 13.6% more, while exports to the US grew by 7.1%.

Technical Analysis

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 112.83.

The projected lower bound is: 109.35.

The projected closing price is: 111.09.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.8981. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.33. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -146.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.040 at 111.140. Volume was 24% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.

Open      High        Low         Close     Volume
111.050   111.300   110.600  111.140  85,342

Technical Outlook
Short Term:               Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term:                Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period  50-period  200-period
Close:                       112.36        111.65         111.99
Volatility:                6                  10               12
Volume:                  102,990      111,988      124,512

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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Ivy Heffernan

Ivy Heffernan, student of Economics at Buckingham University. Junior Analyst at HeffX and experienced marketing director.

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