Japanese Yen (¥) Remains Low & Elusive

Japanese Yen (¥) Remains Low & Elusive

The Japanese yen continues to get hammered by its American counterpart in the European session, as dovish BOJ policy outcome combined as well as Governor Kuroda’s remarks during the press conference, continue to undermine the sentiment around the Yen.

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY failed earlier to hold above 112.00 and recently turned sharply to the downside after the ECB meeting and particularity following a Bloomberg report regarding an investigation on Trump’s businesses. The price of the JPYUSD was at a peak.  The price of the JPY started to move lower and then tumble lower but the net position did not switch to short until the price was much lower

The pair fell from 112.10 to 111.47, reaching the lowest level since June 26. The bearish pressure intensified amid a decline in US yields. The 10-year dropped to 2.243%, also the lowest in three weeks. In Wall Street, the Dow Jones that opened higher was falling 0.20%.

To the topside, a daily close above 5-DMA at 112.27 would shift risk in favor of a re-test of 112.83/92 levels (20 & 10-DMA), beyond which 113.50 would be back on sight. A break below 111.78 (daily low) would open doors for 111.56/45 (multi-week lows/ 100-DMA). A break lower would yield a test of 111.00 (psychological levels).

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 113.64.

The projected lower bound is: 110.18.

The projected closing price is: 111.91.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 20.3099. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -131.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed unchanged at 111.950. Volume was 0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.

Open      High       Low        Close      Volume
111.960   112.410  111.460  111.950  111,878

Technical Outlook
Short Term:               Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:                Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period   50-period   200-period
Close:                       112.93         111.75           111.92
Volatility:                 7                  10                 12
Volume:                   103,943      112,335        124,710

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.

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Ivy Heffernan

Ivy Heffernan, student of Economics at Buckingham University. Junior Analyst at HeffX and experienced marketing director.

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