Japanese Yen (¥) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (JPYUSD)

Japanese Yen (¥) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (JPYUSD)
Japanese Yen (¥) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (JPYUSD)
A monthly index of Japanese activity suggested that March was poor

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 63.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.75 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 17 when USDJPY traded near 110.938; price has moved 1.0% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 14.2% higher than yesterday and 27.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.7% lower than yesterday and 26.9% lower from last week.

USD/JPY,  is currently seeing price re-enter the big zone of confluent support/resistance around 111.61. This recent spate of Yen strength was seemingly driven by a comment from Mr. Kuroda last week in which he remarked that he didn’t feel the BoJ would encounter much troubling when exiting from the bank’s stimulus program. Markets inferred that to mean that the BoJ might be talking about stimulus, and this served to reverse that prior trend of weakness, driving prices in USD/JPY below this key zone from 111.61-112.40. With Mr. Kuroda set to speak tonight, we may see some drive of that prior trend of Yen-weakness after markets went a bit heavy on last week’s inference.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 112.04.

The projected upper bound is: 113.54.

The projected lower bound is: 109.92.

The projected closing price is: 111.73.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.8420. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.270 at 111.760. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 9% narrower than normal.

Open      High        Low         Close       Volume
111.470   111.940   111.460    111.760   106,148

Technical Outlook
Short Term:               Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:                Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period    50-period    200-period
Close:                       112.00         111.28           109.99
Volatility:                14                 10                  12
Volume:                  119,228        113,772        118,990

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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