Is Italy Planning a Fast Euro Exit as Refugee Crisis Mounts

Is Italy Planning a Fast Euro Exit as Refugee Crisis Mounts

Italy may leave the 19-member Eurozone, chances are that the anti-euro Five-Star Movement political party may win the next round of national elections.

With the people of Italy there is mounting support for returning to the lira, Italy’s currency for 141 years ending in 2002.

If Italy abandoned the euro, it will end European monetary union, the move would allow Italy to devalue, restructure and rebuild, it would free them from Merkel’s death grip and the endless stream of refugees.

Under the lira, Italy was able to keep a healthy trade balance by periodically devaluing the lira to make Italian-made products cheaper for foreign buyers, it could easily return to that system.

That kept the economy growing, but a weak currency also made it expensive for Italians to travel abroad or buy foreign goods, but life at home in Italy was good.

Markets are starting to get nervous about the prospect. The Italian Stock Exchange in Milan has been weak since the start of the year, and interest rates for Italian government debt are higher than at any other time since 2014.

A poll held in December showed 47 percent of Italians considered the euro a “bad thing” for the country; only 41 percent held the opposite view.

And leaders of the Five-Star Movement stand by their calls for the country to abandon the common currency.

The movement’s founder, comic and activist Beppe Grillo, has repeatedly said the move to drop the euro should be made “as soon as possible”, pointing to a study showing each delay of one year would cost the country tens of billions of euro.

The big question is still whether Grillo’s allies will be able to take power. A national vote is increasingly likely to be held around the middle of this year.

Polls show backing for the Five-Star Movement more or less even with the Democratic Party, which has produced Italy’s last three prime ministers.

But with the Democratic Party enduring intense internal fighting over its future, a victory for the Five-Star Movement may now be more likely than at any other time during the party’s seven-year history.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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One Response to "Is Italy Planning a Fast Euro Exit as Refugee Crisis Mounts"

  1. Rosewitha Martha Boehm   February 5, 2017 at 9:33 pm

    another nail in the EU coffin….Europe is waking up

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