International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) Downward Trend
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.
The projected upper bound is: 178.50.
The projected lower bound is: 169.43.
The projected closing price is: 173.97.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with INTL BUS MACHINE), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.2005. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.35. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -115.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
INTL BUS MACHINE closed down -1.820 at 173.880. Volume was 27% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 10% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
176.200 176.220 173.840 173.880 807,480
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 176.49 176.12 162.76
Volatility: 12 17 19
Volume: 1,128,955 1,095,637 1,070,901
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
INTL BUS MACHINE is currently 6.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of IBM.N (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on IBM.N and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.