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How Far Can This Recovery Take The Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Market?

$XAU #Gold #Commodities #FX #Trading #Markets #Affiliate

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Gold
Ticker: XAU=
Price: $1828.58

Gold News

Gold bulls might be in for a run higher.

Gold has been a shining light, with price closing above the 5-day EMA for the first time since 11 November. The question is whether we can push into $1,848 and the former breakout low? That is the line the gold bulls need to face to assess if this is more than just short-covering and oversold rally.

Knightsbridge Live looks for gold to keep rising into the year-end and advancing north of $2,000 an ounce in 2021 in light of inflation expectations.

Given real rates haven’t managed to rise further, while the broad dollar continues to print new lows and the Fed sounds an accommodative tone, we expect that a continued economic recovery will once again fuel investment appetite in gold as an inflation-hedge asset.

This could create a bullish setup for the yellow metal as we head into the December FOMC, where we expect that the Fed will ease by extending the weighted average maturity of its Treasury purchases.

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Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,865.81.

The projected upper bound is: 1,891.81.

The projected lower bound is: 1,762.57.

The projected closing price is: 1,827.19.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 95.5188. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.05. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -3.020 at 1,827.990. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 20% wider than normal.

Open       High        Low         Close         Volume
1,830.960  1,831.360   1,826.950   1,827.990     3,081
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period      200-period
Close:           1,816.87      1,879.34       1,802.30
Volatility:      22            22             25
Volume:          308           62             15

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 1.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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