Hong Kong: HANG SENG INDEX (.HSI) Bearish Outlook

Hong Kong: HANG SENG INDEX (.HSI) Bearish Outlook

Hong Kong: HANG SENG INDEX (.HSI) Bearish Outlook

The Hong Kong 50 Index (proxy for Hang Seng Index futures) had traded sideways below the 28000 key medium-term pivotal resistance with no major changes on its key technical elements.

Therefore, maintain bearish bias as long as the 28000 pivotal resistance is not surpassed and a break below 27400 (minor ascending trendline from 11 Sep 2018 low & former minor swing areas of 13/14 Sep 2018) is likely to reinforce the start of potential impulsive downleg to retest the 11 Sep 2018 swing low area of 26100 before targeting 25640/500 next (Fibonacci projection cluster & swing low area of 05 Jul 2017).

On the other hand, a clearance above 28000 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the 29100/30100 range resistance in place since 26 Jul 2018.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 28,686.93.

The projected lower bound is: 26,881.21.

The projected closing price is: 27,784.07.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.6963. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

HANG SENG INDEX closed up 72.850 at 27,788.520. Volume was 13% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 3% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
27,879.06127,927.94927,672.83027,788.5201,687,125,120

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 27,496.30 27,789.89 29,770.88
Volatility: 20 21 22
Volume: 1,830,695,680 1,788,440,704 2,146,105,728

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

HANG SENG INDEX is currently 6.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .HSI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .HSI and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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