Hillary Clinton on the Brink of Historic Election Loss
Sunday, the numbers are much more Bullish for Donald Trump and much more cautious for Hillary Clinton.
Hillary Clinton might be a 2-to-1 fav to win Tuesday’s US Presidential election according to one pundit, but she is not in a safe place as she is just 1 state away” from losing to Donald Trump, polling guru Nate Silver said Sunday.
“The electoral map is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for President Barack Obama 4 years ago,” Mr. Silver, statistician said Sunday on TV. “Four years ago, we had Obama ahead in states totaling 320-some electoral votes.
“Clinton has about 270, so she is about one state away from potentially losing the Electoral College.”
Mr. Silver pointed to polling that shows “Clinton’s a lot weaker in the Midwest” than Obama was in 2012, referencing Trump’s 7-point lead in Iowa.
“So, the demographics for Hillary Clinton do not work as well when you underperform for White non-college voters,” he said.
“Her Electoral College voting in the swing states is weaker than Obama’s.”
Mr. Silver said a larger number of undecided voters leaves the election “vulnerable, if the undecideds break in a certain way.”
“In that sense, both candidates still need a good turnout on Election Day, and still have their work cut out for them,” Mr. Silver added.
Mr. Silver said his numbers are much more Bullish for Donald Trump and much more cautious for Hillary Clinton.
“We think we have a good process,” Silver contended. “Look, you have some forecasts that show Clinton with a 98- or 99% chance of winning. That does not pass a common sense test. We’ve seen lots of elections where there is about a 3% polling error.
“. . . it it goes the other way, all of a sudden, Donald Trump could very easily win Electoral College.
“It is all based on history. If you think a 3-point lead is going to be safe 98 or 99% of the time, then you probably did not design the model in a good way.”
Have a terrific week.
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